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BGonline.org Forums
Simple Probability Problem
Posted By: Tom Keith In Response To: Simple Probability Problem (Rick Janowski)
Date: Wednesday, 26 December 2012, at 3:07 p.m.
If the match length is lengthened considerably, the percentile points will tend to stay constant.
Yes.
However, the probability of each player will shift considerably. The 75% player might become a 95% player ...
Hmmm.
If you are the 75th percentile player, then playing a 100% skill match means you win 75% of the time against the field (you always win against players lower than you, never against players above). Playing a 0% skill match means you are 50% against anyone, and 50% against the field.
So the win rate against the field of the 75th percentile player ranges from 50% in no skill matches to 75% in pure skill matches.
Does that explain it?
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