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Backgammon is not chess!

Posted By: Henrik Bukkjaer
Date: Monday, 11 March 2013, at 9:35 a.m.

In Response To: Backgammon is not chess! (Frank Berger)

>> but a qualitative reasoning is possible.

I guess that is true, if neither player improves over time (learn anything from their matches on either their own game or their opponents).

---

You could break it down like this I suppose: You start at 50% expectation. From there on, only skill-difference and luck can change that number (if we define luck as something the change your equity which doesn't come from (lack of) skill).

Identifying errors and measuring their size can be done by bots in a particular match, thus for any given one match, we should be able to measure luck. However, that will not be the same as being able to measure which player would be the favorite going into the next match!

And as others have mentioned here, luck has many faces (chess players will acknowledge this as well): By coincidence, a game can end in a situation that one player master better than the other, even though that player is not the overall best player of the two. By coincidence, you can draw Neil Kazaross in the third round at a tournament, just about the time where he has a headache, and just finished a long enduring match, while you have had the luxury of a relaxing day and maybe even a bye. By coincidence, in a given match, your opponent will get the "hard" decisions, thus make more errors than you, even though he is stronger!

Some of this coincidental luck can actually be affected. You can steer games in a direction that will favor you. You can prepare yourself better than your opponent. You can make decisions that minimizes the negative coincidental luck that could otherwise affect you (eg. take a borderline 16 cube if you feel tired, seek fewer games thus fewer decisions when facing a stronger opponent, alter your playing speed, etc). The use of such well thought preparation, good decisions and even gamesmanship, cannot be measured by the bots. But it will show in the long run results if you are good or bad at it.

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