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Bagai, anyone? — Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Sunday, 23 June 2013, at 8:39 a.m.

In Response To: Bagai, anyone? (Taper_Mike)





White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 110
Unlimited Game
pip: 91
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ab-CCDBB-A--------abcbbb-:1:-1:1:51:2:4:0:0:10
Blue to play 51
1.Rollout110/9 6/1* eq: +0.8932
Player:
Opponent:		87.21% (G:19.80% B:0.65%)
12.79% (G:1.21% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ±0.0007 (+0.8925...+0.8938) - [99.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
2.Rollout110/4eq: +0.8917 (-0.0015)
Player:
Opponent:		87.65% (G:18.35% B:0.56%)
12.35% (G:0.56% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ±0.0007 (+0.8910...+0.8923) - [0.1%]
Duration: 58 minutes 39 seconds
3.Rollout110/5 4/3eq: +0.8897 (-0.0035)
Player:
Opponent:		86.05% (G:21.64% B:0.86%)
13.95% (G:1.13% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ±0.0007 (+0.8890...+0.8904) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
4.Rollout26/1* 4/3eq: +0.8637 (-0.0294)
Player:
Opponent:		86.09% (G:20.23% B:0.73%)
13.91% (G:2.14% B:0.02%)		Conf.: ±0.0028 (+0.8610...+0.8665) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 01 second
5.Rollout28/3 4/3eq: +0.8618 (-0.0314)
Player:
Opponent:		85.65% (G:20.87% B:0.72%)
14.35% (G:2.17% B:0.03%)		Conf.: ±0.0020 (+0.8597...+0.8638) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 36 seconds
6.Rollout210/5 6/5eq: +0.8602 (-0.0329)
Player:
Opponent:		86.60% (G:17.87% B:0.57%)
13.40% (G:0.71% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ±0.0024 (+0.8579...+0.8626) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 26 seconds
7.Rollout26/5 6/1* eq: +0.8354 (-0.0577)
Player:
Opponent:		85.54% (G:18.00% B:0.60%)
14.46% (G:1.14% B:0.02%)		Conf.: ±0.0027 (+0.8328...+0.8381) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 47 seconds
8.Rollout26/1* 5/4eq: +0.8293 (-0.0638)
Player:
Opponent:		85.36% (G:17.71% B:0.58%)
14.64% (G:1.03% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ±0.0028 (+0.8265...+0.8321) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 38 seconds
 
1 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 17308727
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 17308727
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2013-Jun-22
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000824

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Although I considered the Bagai, 8/3 4/3, I went with the more conventional 10/4. It is too soon to release the oppnent's anchor. Let him crack a little more first.

What I did not see was the superiority of hitting loose. Retaining a spare on the 9pt gives you more ways to make the 3pt next turn. Should the checker on the 1pt be hit, there is little chance that the opponent can escape — let alone win — before he crashes completely.

Mike

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