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Rollout by Taper_Mike | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| Bot | Seed | Equity | Nacbracs | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply Trunc | 682073880 | +133.942 | [$ P25] /0.360t | Taper_Mike |
| XG 1.21 3-ply | 2 | +190 | [$ P43] '<2 | Timothy Chow |
| XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR | 17779690 | +186.7 | [$ P39] "<=7 | Taper_Mike (above) |
| XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval | [XGR++ seed] | +172.4 | [$ P34] "&e | Taper_Mike |
Key: $ (Slot) = 13/7 6/5, P (Point) = 11/5 6/5
| Note: Although I came to the wrong conclusion, my prior analysis of pros and cons was fairly accurate. Here is the updated version.
Suppose Blue were to slot the 5pt. Opponent White would have 4 to hit, or otherwise could make his 4pt or 5pt with 41, 42, 43, 44, and 45. With 46, White could make his 2pt. Excepting the latter, these are powerful duplications. White would be making a real sacrifice were he to choose to hit. When Blue makes the 5pt instead, leaving a slot on the bar point, 6 would be duped. Although none of White’s 6s would make his 4pt or 5pt, White could make his bar point with 61 and 62, make his 3pt with 63, his 2pt with 64, and run with 65. Against this, he could hit. These are sterile duplications. Hitting would be White’s clear choice. Give a big edge to duping 4, and making the bar point. Next, consider Blue’s blot on the 11pt. It goes away when Blue makes the 5pt, leaving a blot on the 7pt, a stripped 8pt, and stacks on the 6pt and midpoint. When Blue makes the bar point instead, the builder on the 11pt remains active, and gives Blue a good 6 whether his slot on the 5pt is hit or not. Advantage to making the bar point. Now, look at covers. A blot on the 5pt would have 1, 6, and 8 as covering numbers. A slot on the bar point, only 6. Big nod to making the bar point. Finally, count the shots. A blot on the 5pt is marginally safer than one on the bar point. Small advantage for making the bar point. Against all this, we have the 5pt. Golden, but not nearly enough. Mike |