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2 away 2 away Score/ DATA

Posted By: Colin Owen
Date: Sunday, 25 August 2013, at 11:30 p.m.

In Response To: 2 away 2 away Score/ DATA (Rick Janowski)

I've been trying to get my head round the probabilities that you wrote, and am aware that you are a trained mathematician. I think that understandable doubt has made me wrestle with it much longer than I should have: there are errors here! As they say, even monkeys fall off trees.

If at 2a 2a you had those 40% cashes then, with the 30% gammon rate that you postulate in the cubeless example that follows, you would get a 3 game finish only 14% of the time, not 28%. The 2 game finish would occur 26% not 20%. (This produces a mean of 1.54 games, not 1.68.)

With the cubeless 2a 2a scenario (and 30% G) you would get the 3 gamer 24.5% not 50%, and a 2 game finish 45.5% not 20%. (This produces a mean of 1.945 games, not 2.2.)

I guess it may have been a long day, and you bashed it out quick?!

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