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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 12 October 2006, at 11:23 a.m.

In Response To: NIB #60 (Stick)

Initially I didn't roll out 15/13 6/3 because I thought it was too ugly but since people thought about playing that weenie I tossed in 108 games. You do have an enormous racing lead, but it isn't like your opponent has a 5 pt. board (or a 2 pt. board for that matter lol) so such a play is uncalled for. The best play is the simpl 15/10, bringing the back checker around, duplicating aces to hit and cover, and also forcing him to break his outfield control and leave a lot of blots around if he does hit from your 9 pt. By playing 15/10 you also add another attacker if white is unable to safety his blot on your 5 pt. Going all out for the gammon with 7/5* instead doesn't win enough Gs to compensate for the games and gammons lost. (you do leave yourself 3 blots in doing this, even though you have the better board, stranger things have been known to happen)

Money Game
157
120
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 15/10 0.245
0.3% 20.2% 62.4% 37.6% 7.0% 0.2%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.382 ±0.012. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 33852 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2 R 13/10 7/5* 0.220 (-0.025)
0.4% 27.5% 59.8% 40.2% 10.2% 0.7%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.367 ±0.012. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 37267 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
3 R 15/13 6/3 0.211 (-0.034)
0.1% 15.9% 63.6% 36.4% 8.4% 0.4%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.344 ±0.040. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 108 games (equiv. 3761 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

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