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Kauder Paradox 5184 Game Snowie Rollout

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Tuesday, 4 March 2014, at 2:36 p.m.

In Response To: Kauder Paradox 5184 Game Snowie Rollout (leobueno)

Please explain what's going on in this position. Thanks.

This is an example from 8 years ago of why the Jacoby rule is stupid.

Blue is not even favored to win (44% GWC) but since he has significant gammon chances it's to his advantage to turn the cube so that gammons count. Without Jacoby it would be a massive blunder to cube.

The question is whether white should beaver. XG rollout confirms it's a beaver, but it's very close.

Note that if blue fans (16/36) white has a cash / borderline TG.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 86
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 88
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBC--------Acaacbbba-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 44.79% (G:26.39% B:0.59%) 45.18% (G:27.67% B:0.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 55.21% (G:3.44% B:0.08%) 54.82% (G:3.31% B:0.06%)
Cubeless Equities +0.130 +0.305
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.222 (-0.213)±0.000 (-0.222..-0.222)
xg Double/Beaver:-0.009±0.012 (-0.021..+0.003)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.009)
Best Cube action: Double / Beaver
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Beaver Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 48.3 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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