This position could be a poster child for the contrast between modern BG theory and Magriel's old dicta of "don't slot while split" and "don't come under the gun."
I don't plan to post Nack's variants (I'll leave him to do that if he wants) but I'm posting a few other positions below which can be analyzed using similar principles. They all feature a builder on White's 9pt. I'll leave the retroanalysis and nactation to those who like that sort of thing.
          
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 160 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 168
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b----E-C---cE-aac-e----AA:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 6/5 | eq: -0.231 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.74% (G:11.87% B:0.63%)
54.26% (G:19.77% B:1.13%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.246...-0.217) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 35 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 13/8 | eq: -0.297 (-0.066) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.58% (G:11.83% B:0.66%)
56.42% (G:19.08% B:1.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.311...-0.283) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 20 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 24/23 | eq: -0.308 (-0.077) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.81% (G:10.63% B:0.53%)
56.19% (G:18.62% B:0.67%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.324...-0.292) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 17 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
This one's a similar but somewhat tougher decision since White has a more threatening attack and 13/10 is more flexible than 13/8. W gets you gammoned significantly more often. This could stand a longer rollout but I'm not planning to do one.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 151 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 168
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b----E-C---bE--acbe----AA:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 31 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 6/5 | eq: -0.442 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.48% (G:10.40% B:0.49%)
58.52% (G:24.67% B:1.29%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.458...-0.427) - [99.6%]
Duration: 26 minutes 04 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 13/10 | eq: -0.472 (-0.030) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.57% (G:10.39% B:0.49%)
60.43% (G:20.23% B:1.52%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.487...-0.457) - [0.4%]
Duration: 26 minutes 07 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
This one was surprising to me since Blue is ahead in the race and has a slightly weaker board. And actually, 24/20 24/23 is very close.
    
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 152 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 147
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b-B--E-C---cC--ac-d-b--B-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 41 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/20 6/5 | eq: -0.264 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.12% (G:15.03% B:1.20%)
55.88% (G:22.17% B:1.26%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.271...-0.257) - [99.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 24/20 | eq: -0.277 (-0.013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.74% (G:14.27% B:1.15%)
56.26% (G:20.96% B:0.78%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.285...-0.270) - [0.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 24/23 13/9 | eq: -0.317 (-0.053) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.81% (G:14.09% B:0.98%)
57.19% (G:21.21% B:1.11%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.332...-0.302) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 05 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 13/9 6/5 | eq: -0.319 (-0.055) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.00% (G:14.84% B:1.07%)
57.00% (G:20.67% B:1.72%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.334...-0.304) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 20 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Somewhat similar to the previous position but an easier decision, since White's attacking potential is reduced relative to her priming potential.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 153 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 147
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b-B--E-C---bC-aabbe----B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/22 6/5 | eq: -0.179 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.82% (G:15.32% B:1.09%)
54.18% (G:19.56% B:1.06%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.195...-0.163) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 14 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: -0.231 (-0.052) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.18% (G:15.37% B:1.25%)
55.82% (G:18.94% B:1.27%) | Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.250...-0.213) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 50 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/23 24/22 | eq: -0.246 (-0.068) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.96% (G:14.23% B:0.88%)
56.04% (G:19.10% B:0.82%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.262...-0.231) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 22 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 24/21 | eq: -0.265 (-0.086) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.59% (G:13.97% B:0.95%)
56.41% (G:19.68% B:0.82%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.280...-0.250) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 12 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: -0.298 (-0.119) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.67% (G:14.63% B:0.94%)
57.33% (G:19.58% B:1.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.315...-0.280) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 15 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10