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Two Rollouts - you figure it out

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 14 October 2006, at 11:15 p.m.

In Response To: NIB #63 (Stick)

Well...what's going on? In New Ideas in Backgammon Kit recommends playing 'safe', everyone here thinks you should play 'safe'. I included a cubeful & cubeless rollout just because and Snowie says unless you're hungry the 5 is the 5. I agree with Snowie (it's easy to hop on the bot train esp. after seeing the rollouts! but seriously ... don't you agree with the play now) First of all it's rare that we lose a gammon here. If we are hit in the outfield we'll fan 25/36, double/pass, no gammon lost, so get that out of our heads. We do however win significantly more gammons if we make the five, as white, being ahead in the race, will be forced to run, most likely very soon, so the 5 pt. will become very important. By mucking a checker behind the anchor and giving up 1/2 of our outfield control by buttoning up we leave white pretty much free to run, as we have less hitters now and a blot in our inner board. Lastly, the button up, run, hit & cover STILL leaves a blot in the outfield that will most likely be 5 or 6 away from white's other checker on the 4 pt. so he'll get flyer shots too.

Money Game
Blue on roll. Cube Action?
95
104
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 8/5 6/5 0.075
0.4% 5.9% 49.8% 50.2% 10.8% 0.1%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.048 0.018. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 14689 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.
2 R 14/13 6/3 -0.032 (-0.107)
0.1% 4.5% 48.6% 51.4% 4.6% 0.1%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.030 0.014. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 24405 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 8/5 6/5 0.073
0.4% 5.8% 49.8% 50.2% 10.8% 0.1%
Live cube rollout: 0.101
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.050 0.012, - live cube: 0.101 0.025. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 33969 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, seed 1, with race database.
2 R 14/13 6/3 -0.046 (-0.119)
0.1% 4.2% 48.4% 51.6% 5.0% 0.1%
Live cube rollout: 0.029
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.041 0.011, - live cube: 0.029 0.020. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 48188 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, seed 1, with race database.

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