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21$-62S-64 — No Jacoby, No Beavers — 3-ply XG2 Rollouts

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Wednesday, 21 May 2014, at 8:19 p.m.

In Response To: 21$-62S-64 and the follow-up 55 (Nack Ballard)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 159 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 164 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---ADaC--AdDa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 64

1.	Rollout1	13/7* 11/7	eq: +0.1719
	Player: Opponent: 53.91% (G:16.06% B:0.84%) 46.09% (G:12.53% B:0.68%) Conf.: ±0.0082 (+0.1637...+0.1801) - [100.0%] Duration: 5 hours 09 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/20 11/5	eq: +0.1450 (-0.0269)
	Player: Opponent: 53.08% (G:14.59% B:0.60%) 46.92% (G:10.07% B:0.39%) Conf.: ±0.0072 (+0.1378...+0.1522) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 33 minutes
3.	Rollout1	13/7* 5/1*	eq: +0.0788 (-0.0932)
	Player: Opponent: 51.20% (G:18.33% B:0.69%) 48.80% (G:14.13% B:0.84%) Conf.: ±0.0086 (+0.0702...+0.0874) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 53 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Michael Nielsen 2014-Apr-23 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.12.202.pre-release 21$-62S-64-mn.xgp [P C27 K93] "<=5

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 159 Unlimited Game pip: 164 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---ADaC--AdDa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 64

1.	Rollout1	13/7* 11/7	eq: +0.1706
	Player: Opponent: 53.86% (G:16.21% B:0.81%) 46.14% (G:12.45% B:0.66%) Conf.: ±0.0033 (+0.1673...+0.1739) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 hours 10 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/20 11/5	eq: +0.1509 (-0.0198)
	Player: Opponent: 53.09% (G:14.84% B:0.61%) 46.91% (G:10.32% B:0.40%) Conf.: ±0.0028 (+0.1481...+0.1537) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 hours 43 minutes
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 93985434 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike 2014-Mar-27 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658 21$-62S-64-n-tm.xgp n[P C20] "<=31 n[P C11] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

21$-62S-64 — Unlimited Games

Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
XG 2.12.202.pre-release 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	1	+171.9	[P C27 K93] "<=5	Michael Nielsen (above)
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval	[XGR++ seed]	+161.7	[P C13 K83 O108 J114 H125] "&e	Nack Ballard
GnuBg 1.02 2-ply Trunc	735769951	+166.999	n[P C17] '/0.360t	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	93985434	+170.6	n[P C20] "<=31	Taper_Mike (above)
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval	[XGR++ seed]	+163.9	n[P C11] "&e	Taper_Mike

Key: C = Cross [24/20, 11/5], H = Hit [24/14*], J = Jump [11/5, 8/4], K = Kill [13/7*, 5/1*], O = Outer [13/9, 11/5], P = Point [ 13/7*, 11/7]

Nactation Tutorial • Explanation of nacbracs • Nacbracs for cube actions

This is a fascinating position where the best play is to leave the 5pt slotted against a double shot. I am surprised it has not drawn more comment.

The two XG rollouts above put the margin between P and C at 0.027 and 0.020 respectively. That’s either above or right at the 0.02 threshold Nack likes to use for his retro-sequences. Given the high variance that is often present in a 5k rollout, the true margin is probably closer to 0.02 than anything else.

Mike

Messages In This Thread

• New Ideas Revisited #13
  Stick -- Sunday, 24 September 2006, at 5:00 p.m.
  • Snowie Rollout
    Stick -- Wednesday, 27 September 2006, at 4:14 a.m.
    • Re: Snowie Rollout
      Mislav Radica -- Thursday, 2 November 2006, at 9:29 a.m.
  • New Ideas Revisited #13 - XG Rollout
    Stick -- Saturday, 15 February 2014, at 2:16 a.m.
    • 21$-62S-64P-55B-64H-51H-44
      Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 15 February 2014, at 2:19 p.m.
      • An interesting 3rd roll: 21$-62S-64
        Taper_Mike -- Saturday, 15 February 2014, at 4:50 p.m.
        • 21$-62S-64 and the follow-up 55
          Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 15 February 2014, at 9:00 p.m.
          • 21$-62S-64P-55 — No Jacoby, No Beavers — 3-ply XG2 Rollout
            Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 21 May 2014, at 8:14 p.m.
          • 21$-62S-64 — No Jacoby, No Beavers — 3-ply XG2 Rollouts
            Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 21 May 2014, at 8:19 p.m.
            • 21$-62S-64 — No Jacoby, No Beavers — 3-ply XG2 Rollouts
              Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 21 May 2014, at 10:12 p.m.
              • Come to think of it...
                Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 21 May 2014, at 10:51 p.m.
      • 21$-62S-64P-55B-64H-51H-44 — No Jacoby, No Beavers — 3-ply XG2 Rollout
        Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 21 May 2014, at 7:18 p.m.
  • New Ideas Revisited #13 - GNU Rollout
    Stick -- Saturday, 15 February 2014, at 2:16 a.m.