It sure is tempting to make your own five point here. If you get away with it your structure will be significantly improved. IF. The race is even (it's always a racial issue with me, just happens this play fell on MLK day too, coincidence!?) so getting a third checker sent back is a significant loss. On top of that it's not just that particular blot, it's the other two blots you have floating around deep in my home board. While I won't be overanxious to attack that deep, I may have to with certain rolls and in these variations a blot in your inner board will be real weakness.
If you play the safe + patient play you should naturally make the 4 or 5 pt. in the future without having to leave a direct shot. The 9 pt. doesn't go particularly well in conjunction with the 3 pt., but as mentioned, you'll happily break that point & use those builders to make the 4, 5, or bar points. I didn't extend this rollout any further because I saw Lucky's rollout and it was already stat. sig. anyway.
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| Board image courtesy of GO-Figure | |
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | R | 13/9 6/3 | -0.328 | |
| 0.4% 10.7% 41.5% 58.5% 16.6% 0.8% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.232 ±0.023. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 10855 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database. | ||||
| 2 | R | 9/5 8/5 | -0.381 (-0.053) | |
| 0.4% 11.4% 40.2% 59.8% 18.7% 0.9% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.274 ±0.023. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 12194 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database. | ||||