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Rollout from OLM past - Dec. 12th

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 16 January 2007, at 9:25 a.m.

If you remember nobody considered the 19/18 play and it is even closer than the initial rollout showed. Thought I'd repost simply because I finally finished a few of the rollouts to my satisfaction. The only reason 19/18 isn't correct is because of the extra Gs lost ... which seems basically insignificant here.


Match to 25, tied at 2
44
164
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 9/8 7/6 6/5(2) -1.059
0.0% 1.9% 25.9% 74.1% 67.5% 0.1%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -1.138 0.004. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 341793 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2 R 19/18 7/6 6/5(2) -1.061 (-0.002)
0.0% 1.9% 26.2% 73.8% 68.4% 0.1%
95% confidence interval - money cubeless eq.: -1.140 0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 162065 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

 

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