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BGonline.org Forums
Re: Rollout from Chou action - Repost
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Re: Rollout from Chou action - Repost (Ian Shaw)
Date: Wednesday, 17 January 2007, at 5:32 a.m.
It wasn't rhetorical at all, everyone in the chouette thought it was a pass also. First of all the only rolls that make a full six prime the next roll are 3-1 & 1-1. These are pretty crushing (though even then possibly not the end of the world, there are strange variations where I could roll something that didn't hurt me, 2-1, 3-1, 1-1, 6-6, and my opponent could get unlucky and crack).
Blue needs to escape from inside my board also. A 4 prime is more than you think, esp. if I'm able to attack successfully. I think everyone in the chou overestimated by a longshot the gammons they'd win here too. How do you expect to win a gammon as Blue? If you simply close out one checker you'll be around 5% gammon wins, whoopie shit. If you do jar loose another checker and THEN close them both up you're up to 40%, you're a loooooooooooooong way from that scenario. Most likely is if you do jar one loose I anchor up before you're able to close me out. Gammons shouldn't be a factor [as the rollout showed], White wins just as many as Blue.
White is also a ton ahead in the race. It's not a race yet...sure...but it sure will be if White is able to pop a 6-2. Blue has weak outfield coverage right now and needs to escape a back checker himself. If he doesn't he's nearing the crack point as much as I am. Eg if he rolls something simple like a 4-3, 4-2 it plays but it isn't pretty. There's also the immediate nasty 4-4 and 3-3, while it's ok, could get hairy pretty quickly.
White will also have varations where he is forced to play from his 6 pt. but he may end up making a 5 pt. board and Blue dancing for a bit giving him time to roll the needed 2 and then a 6. Even a simple 2 will force Blue to come in & hit, giving White significant winning chances.
Stick
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