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Re: Re: OLM Wed. Jan 17th. Play Decision - Vote 2nd

Posted By: Philippe Michel
Date: Wednesday, 17 January 2007, at 11:34 p.m.

In Response To: Re: OLM Wed. Jan 17th. Play Decision - Vote 2nd (garyo)

> if he leaps, we gotta hit back

When I posted my vote, I didn't realize that if he leaps and we don't hit back, we're not merely in deep trouble : we're doubled out.

After the safe play, the blot is 5, 6 or 7 pips away from our 15pt, for 38/108 hits and 70 single losses.

After 15/6, I count 52 hits and 20 losses if he escaped with 3-5 or 3-6, plus 36 losses after 3-4, including some gammons (Neil suggested 50%). 20 + 36 + 18 = 74. The safe play still seems better, but it's close.

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