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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 18 January 2007, at 8:44 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Wed. Jan 17th. Cube Decision - Vote 1st (Stick)

There simply aren't many if any market losers. You're way down in the race, you have no checkers up front to make the 4 pt. The normal scenario will be you bring a builder into play, I roll, you hope I don't toss a 3, I break my 6pt. Then what? You're still a mile behind in the race and finally have a few combinations that make the 4 pt. Then I'd think about cubing. Right now is way too early. I'll probably have you outboarded for a while to come too, since I can't play sixes I'll break my 6pt. and retain my 5 pt. board for minimum 2 turns, hopefully more.


Match to 25, White leads 9 to 8
Blue on roll. Cube Action?
74
100
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
Rollout Money equity: 0.281
0.1% 1.7% 65.1% 34.9% 3.8% 0.1%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.281 ±0.012. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 27341 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
1. No double 0.438
2. Double, take 0.341 (-0.097)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.562)
Proper cube action: No double, take15%

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