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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 18 January 2007, at 9:01 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Tues. Jan. 16th (Stick)

Now this, unlike the Jan. 17th cube, is a cube. The sublte differences should be studied side by side if you didn't understand the positions initially. The other post can be found Jan. 17th Cube [it will open in a separate window].

3-2, 4-2, 4-3, 3-3, and 2-2 all lose your market. In fact, after one of these combos + dance you may be technically too good. I get my 17-1 shot in some variations but for practical purposes you win immediately on those 8 rolls.

2-1, 3-1, 4-1 all pick & pass. Granted, this doesn't lose your market with an open 4 pt. and still tons behind in the race, it's still a good parlay for you. Even pick & pass + me entering on the ace point is ok.

Other things like loose hit + miss = pass. 5-4 and 6-4 you should be hitting loose and praying to the almighty that I don't hit back.

In short, all this adds up to a double. My take is clear since loose hits give me returns (plus I win more gammons than you do by far). I am way up in the race and like I said, even hit + fan doesn't kill me, I can still get back in this race. The real advantage you have here is being on roll, if I was on roll I'd be the favorite in this game.

Don't forget to compare the two positions. This position you're 3 pips further behind in the race but really the race has nothing to do with it on your end. Even though I'm threatening to escape here and am back on the ace point on Jan. 15th, here you have ways to lose your market, there, not so much. I would elaborate but I have to go kill someone...fuckin' Neteller.


Match to 25, White leads 9 to 8
Blue on roll. Cube Action?
74
103
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
Rollout Money equity: 0.294
0.1% 2.9% 67.4% 32.6% 8.3% 0.1%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.294 ±0.009, - live cube no double: 0.423 ±0.014, - live cube double take: 0.473 ±0.021. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 63330 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.
Evaluations
1. Double, take 0.428
2. No double 0.403 (-0.025)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.572)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Live cube
1. Double, take 0.473
2. No double 0.423 (-0.049)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.527)
Proper cube action: Double, take

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