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BGonline.org Forums
Rollout
Posted By: Stick In Response To: OLM Wed. Jan 17th. Play Decision - Vote 2nd (Stick)
Date: Thursday, 18 January 2007, at 9:29 a.m.
15/6 was my only choice. Everything else had that 'too fancy' feel to it. 15/6 leaves the best outfield coverage, brings a spare to the perfect spot, and only pays off to one 17-1 shot. You need ammo in range if I step up to the 4, you need coverage if I happen to hop out, what else accomplishes this so nicely?
Match to 25, White leads 9 to 874 100 Board image courtesy of GO-Figure
# Ply Move Equity 1 R 15/6 0.452 0.0% 2.1% 64.7% 35.3% 6.1% 0.1% Live cube rollout: 0.484 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.254 ±0.012, - live cube: 0.484 ±0.028. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 27883 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database. 2 R 15/9 8/5 0.397 (-0.054) 0.1% 1.7% 63.6% 36.4% 6.3% 0.1% Live cube rollout: 0.440 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.225 ±0.011, - live cube: 0.440 ±0.023. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 34547 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database. 3 R 15/9 13/10 0.391 (-0.061) 0.0% 2.0% 61.7% 38.3% 11.8% 0.3% Live cube rollout: 0.415 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.132 ±0.015, - live cube: 0.415 ±0.038. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 217 games (equiv. 20124 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database. 4 R 15/12 13/7 0.385 (-0.067) 0.0% 1.7% 63.0% 37.0% 6.2% 0.1% Live cube rollout: 0.426 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.216 ±0.013, - live cube: 0.426 ±0.026. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 28679 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database. 5 R 13/7 8/5 0.368 (-0.083) 0.0% 1.8% 62.4% 37.6% 2.5% 0.0% Live cube rollout: 0.417 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.241 ±0.013, - live cube: 0.417 ±0.024. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 22484 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.
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