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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 18 January 2007, at 9:29 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Wed. Jan 17th. Play Decision - Vote 2nd (Stick)

15/6 was my only choice. Everything else had that 'too fancy' feel to it. 15/6 leaves the best outfield coverage, brings a spare to the perfect spot, and only pays off to one 17-1 shot. You need ammo in range if I step up to the 4, you need coverage if I happen to hop out, what else accomplishes this so nicely?


Match to 25, White leads 9 to 8
74
100
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 15/6 0.452
0.0% 2.1% 64.7% 35.3% 6.1% 0.1%
Live cube rollout: 0.484
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.254 ±0.012, - live cube: 0.484 ±0.028. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 27883 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.
2 R 15/9 8/5 0.397 (-0.054)
0.1% 1.7% 63.6% 36.4% 6.3% 0.1%
Live cube rollout: 0.440
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.225 ±0.011, - live cube: 0.440 ±0.023. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 34547 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.
3 R 15/9 13/10 0.391 (-0.061)
0.0% 2.0% 61.7% 38.3% 11.8% 0.3%
Live cube rollout: 0.415
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.132 ±0.015, - live cube: 0.415 ±0.038. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 217 games (equiv. 20124 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.
4 R 15/12 13/7 0.385 (-0.067)
0.0% 1.7% 63.0% 37.0% 6.2% 0.1%
Live cube rollout: 0.426
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.216 ±0.013, - live cube: 0.426 ±0.026. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 28679 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.
5 R 13/7 8/5 0.368 (-0.083)
0.0% 1.8% 62.4% 37.6% 2.5% 0.0%
Live cube rollout: 0.417
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.241 ±0.013, - live cube: 0.417 ±0.024. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 22484 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.

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