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A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Monday, 26 January 2015, at 9:43 p.m.

In Response To: A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck (Timothy Chow)

I am one of those people who always say that better players are luckier because there are more good rolls possible after you play well than after you play poorly. I know this can easily be proven simply by looking at what your average equity is after you make a good play than after you make a bad play.

But I think what is confusing is that the "luck factor" is not based on how many good rolls there are vs. bad rolls by comparing two different previous plays. It is only looking at how the specific roll compares to the average roll for the given position.

So given the true way luck is computed, good players will roll, in the long run, just as well as bad players. Given any situation, both players, in the long run, will roll something close to the average roll for every roll they have.

That is why I believe that we are talking about apples and oranges in this type of study.

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