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A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 27 January 2015, at 12:28 a.m.

In Response To: A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck (Stein Kulseth)

Stein Kulseth wrote:

The way I see it the winner is always lucky

Certainly, the word "lucky" means a lot of different things colloquially. The definition I have in mind is the one used by the bots. If we use the bots' definition of the word "luck," and if we say that the "luckier" player in a match was the player with greater luck as measured by the bots, then it is not true that the winner is always luckier. It is usually true, and the loser has to play really badly for it not to be true, but it is not always true.

Similar comments apply to my made-up game, in which I have given a precise definition of "luckier" according to which the winner is not always the luckier player. Your reaction might be that my definition of "luck" is not a good one because it fails to have a property that you want the word "luck" to have, but I believe that my definition is close to the bots' definition, and is therefore helpful for understanding that definition.

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