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A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck

Posted By: Tom Keith
Date: Wednesday, 28 January 2015, at 9:30 a.m.

In Response To: A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck (Maik Stiebler)

Why do you insist on using perfect-player-equity for calculating luck?

I don't know if I'm insisting. Think of it as more of a suggestion. :)

1. I wanted a definition that was clear, so that when we talk about "luck" we are talking about the same thing.

2. I wanted a definition that captures what the bots (try to) calculate and report as luck.

3. I wanted a definition that leads to useful properties about how luck relates to skill. For example, "net luck minus net errors equals either one or zero depending on whether you won or lost the match." It seems to me that is what Tim was after.

Using practical equity arguably is better suited for separating out randomness - it targets some of the things that Timothy doesn't want to call luck.

Do you mean, for example, by playing many matches between two opponents and observing the variableness of the results to get a measure of luck? That could be a useful definition too for some applications. And it would capture all luck, not just luck associated with rolls of the dice.

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