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10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes

Posted By: Sean Garber
Date: Sunday, 8 February 2015, at 10:29 p.m.

In Response To: 10-10/11, they started with 11 and 21 seconds clocktime, and played 30 minutes (Timothy Chow)

Thanks for your interest, Timothy. I already agree with most of your corrections. Of course, XG does count cube decisions as decisions and does not count inconsequential checker plays as decisions. I also think my statement "my gut instinct says that if someone did do full rollouts on the last game, Mochy's PR would get significantly better" indicates that I too don't really trust XG evaluations on this game either.

I do not agree with your statement,"Also if you're going to try to cancel out equities in this way, you should be using match-winning chances rather than PR. PR is mathematically ill-behaved and subtracting one from the other leads to meaningless results". I will admit that I may not have my brain completely wrapped around what you are getting at here. PR=((equity lost)/(decisions))*500 . I have no idea why the difference in two players PR would be meaningless. Also, if one makes an error at DMP, isn't that going to have a significantly greater cost when measured by MWC than the same error at a 0-0 match score in almost all cases? At the very least, using PR diffences in the way I used them in the post above has to be a decent close-enough-for-horseshoes estimation.

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