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BGonline.org Forums
Re: OLM Fri. Jan. 19th
Posted By: stremba In Response To: OLM Fri. Jan. 19th (Stick)
Date: Friday, 19 January 2007, at 2:18 p.m.
I think the loose hit on the ace point is not the way to go. We don't mind Stick on the ace, and a 4 from the bar would work the same way for him as a 3 from the ace point. I just don't see the upside to justify the risk. I considered briefly making the 4 point and leaving the direct six shot, but I think that's way too risky. That gives him 11/36 rolls to hit, after which we are in trouble unless we roll 66 or 61 right away, so I reject that play. The two candidates left are 13/8 and 13/11 8/5. The first reduces the escaping rolls at the expense of greater outfield coverage. The second maintains outfield coverage but gives additional escaping rolls. After 13/8 63 and 53 are escaping numbers. If he rolls 63, we have 15 rolls that hit. After 53 we have 17 hitting rolls. Therefore he escapes and we fail to hit: 1/18 * 21/36 + 1/18 + 19/36 = 6.17% of the time. After 13/11 8/5, Stick can escape with 63, 53, and 43. If he escapes with a 43, we have a direct 3 shot and an indirect 7 shot, which gives 15 hitting rolls. After 53, we have a double shot from 2 and 6 points away giving 24 hitting rolls. After 63, we have a double shot from 1 and 5 points away giving 22 hitting rolls. Therefore, after this move Stick escapes and we fail to hit: 1/18 * 21/36 + 1/18 * 12/36 + 1/18 * 14/36 = 7.25% of the time. Assuming that we lose if Stick escapes and we don't return hit (which is probably true since will likely double us out after such a sequence) We lose 1.08% more often with 13/11 8/5 than we do with 13/8, which makes 13/8 the right play.
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