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Re: OLM Fri. Jan. 19th

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Friday, 19 January 2007, at 11:05 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Fri. Jan. 19th (Stick)

If Stick hops into our outfield and we miss, the game is over. If we make our 8 pt he has 4 numbers to hop out and we miss the 6 shot 19 times and the 5 shot 21 times for a total of 80 misses.

If we play the more natural looking 13/11 8/5 he has 6 numbers to hop out and we miss the 3 and 7 shot 18 times and miss the 6 and 2 shot 12 times and miss the 5&1 shot 15 times for a total of 90 misses or about 0.77%.

Also if we make the 8 pt and Stick steps up, we can point with 2,3,4 and hit and lift with a couple, albeit ugly aces.

All this gives me a tiny pref, to make the unnatural play of making the 8 pt, noting that it usually is wrong to make 6 pts out a of broken 7 prime.

Likely very very close here.

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