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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 20 January 2007, at 9:16 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Fri. Jan. 19th (Stick)

What do you fear here? Me hoping to the outfield of course. If I hop out and you miss me it's recube city and unless you find some monster doubles along the way you won't get to see the end of this game.

There are only two real plays but Snowie had them all close to begin with I rolled 'em out for the hell of it to make sure I wasn't crazy. First let's look at 13/8. 13/8 makes it so I have 4 escaping numbers, 5-3 & 6-3. Otherwise if I simply step up to the 4 pt. with any other 3 you'll have a decent amount of woodage to hit me, either P&P, POH, or loose hit, depending on what the dice give you. If I do hop out you still get a 5 or a 6 shot meaning you hit a little less than half the time (I'm simplyfying for arguments sake, Neil & Stremba already posted more exact #s here and here. In fact I realize they said so much there's no need for my analysis, tx guys ;)

On a side note hitting on the ace would be a double whopper with cheese. This gives me 20 good numbers as any 4 would act like a 3 is for me now, almost joker-esque. You're also giving me aces to a certain extent as I'd love to hit, even on the ace point, and have a couple of free rolls while you dance on my 5 pt. board to try to roll an escaping number. Often in those variations too if I do escape after hitting and you're still on the roof I get to play on and sweep up another blot or two if I'm lucky.

Lastly making the 4 pt. is way too large allowing me almost 11 immediate wins out of 36. You're in no need of this desperation play. Sure, you'd like to have the 4 pt. but the risk far outweighs the reward here. Be patient, you can bring down builders and wait until I step up to hit on the 4 pt. with some tempo if need be.


Match to 25, White leads 9 to 8
66
91
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 13/8 0.260
0.0% 1.9% 67.8% 32.2% 1.6% 0.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.360 ±0.005. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 127626 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2 R 13/11 8/5 0.254 (-0.006)
0.0% 1.8% 67.6% 32.4% 1.4% 0.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.357 ±0.005. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 137458 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
3 R 15/10 0.226 (-0.034)
0.0% 2.2% 66.6% 33.4% 4.0% 0.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.313 ±0.012. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 27014 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
4 R 15/12 13/11 0.208 (-0.052)
0.0% 1.9% 65.8% 34.2% 3.2% 0.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.303 ±0.012. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 26556 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
5 R 15/12 8/6 0.195 (-0.066)
0.0% 1.9% 65.0% 35.0% 1.6% 0.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.303 ±0.012. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 27806 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
6 R 15/13 8/5 0.194 (-0.066)
0.0% 1.9% 65.0% 35.0% 1.1% 0.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.307 ±0.012. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 27426 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
7 R 13/10 8/6 0.177 (-0.083)
0.1% 1.8% 64.4% 35.6% 2.6% 0.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.281 ±0.011. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 32699 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

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