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Rollout!

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 21 January 2007, at 10:58 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Sat. Jan. 20th (Stick)

As Neil noted MANY players routinely pass this position without giving it much thought. I'll admit it doesn't look all that appealing and a couple of you were very accurate in your assessments that one small change such as a spare on your 8 pt. or my back men not split would swing it to a take. If my opponent is weaker than I am I certainly take here, and I'm kind of sad you dropped, wanted to see it play out. OTB I take this against any non-WC opponent. There are many decisions in the future, for both sides.


Match to 25, White leads 9 to 10
Stick on roll. Cube Action?
141
184
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
Rollout Money equity: 0.615
3.6% 30.6% 66.8% 33.2% 6.0% 0.3%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.615 ±0.013, - live cube no double: 0.899 ±0.026, - live cube double take: 1.020 ±0.035. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 31740 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.
Evaluations
1. Double, pass 1.000
2. No double 0.905 (-0.095)
3. Double, take 1.049 (+0.049)
Proper cube action: Double, pass
Live cube
1. Double, pass 1.000
2. No double 0.899 (-0.101)
3. Double, take 1.020 (+0.020)
Proper cube action: Double, pass

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