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Re: Bearoff cube problem

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 22 January 2007, at 3:21 a.m.

In Response To: Bearoff cube problem (DC-Ohio)

I have never truly studied these positions as I should but have went on feel and a bit of common sense fudging on my part. I plan on entering a few events this year in the ABT and am going to crunch some numbers so I might as well start now. First though, let's go with the gut.

The gut knows first of all the pipcount is very misleading. White has a ton of wastage not only on the ace point but also the empty five point is key in this position. A crude addition of 2 pips for every extra checker on the ace and then a 2 pip adjustment for the empty five point would put this as a DT.

Very crude indeed so let's do some math. First:
Thorp count. (ignore the numbers if you like, I will provide an excellent link @ the end of my babblling)

White: 37 +(2x15)+ 7 - 5=69 ..... 10% of 69 = 7, 69+7 =76 <---
Blue: 37 +(2x15)+ 2 - 6=79

The criteria for doubling using the Thorpe count would indicate this is a small pass. Thorpe is the man btw, I'd like to thank him for everything he did for blackjack. His book was my first stepping stone to raping the casinos whenever I felt like it. (the Keeler/Gillogly count is about the same count except relative values are used to try to reduce the size of the numbers involved)

Ward Count

37+(2x5)+(1x0)+(.5x0)+(2x0)-0 = 47 (notice it's basically 37+10)
53+(2x0)+(1x0)+(.5x0)+(2x0)-1 = 52 (Snowie has the Ward count as 53, it fails to subtract 1 pip from Blue's total pip count for having one more inner board point made than White, I'm far from well versed so I may be making an error somewhere but as far as I can tell these #s are accurate). Proper Cube Action: DT

Keith Count

37+(2x6)+(1x1)+(1x0)+(1x1) = 51 .... 51+7=58
53+(2x1)+(1x1)+(1x0)+(1x0) = 56

Proper Cube Action: DT

Now what you've all been waiting for, the explanation behind the numbers: Tom Keith's excellent article

Summary of the Keith Count

For each player, start with the basic pip count and:

  • add 2 pips for each checker more than 1 on the one point;
  • add 1 pip for each checker more than 1 on the two point;
  • add 1 pip for each checker more than 3 on the three point;
  • add 1 pip for each empty space on points four, five, and six.

Increase the count of the player on roll by one-seventh (rounding down).

  • A player should double if his count exceeds the opponent’s count by no more than 4.
  • A player should redouble if his count exceeds the opponent’s count by no more than 3.
  • The opponent should take if the doubler’s count exceeds the opponent’s count by at least 2.

Stick

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