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7a3a recube action

Posted By: scotty
Date: Sunday, 22 November 2015, at 7:14 a.m.

In Response To: 7a3a recube action (Timothy Chow)

I'll take a shot at this one. I know my MET up to 7a7a.

IF blue hits, blue is about 55% to 60% favourite to win the game. However, blue hits only 20/36 shots, for a win percentage in the neighbourhood of 30%. If blue had already hit one, his GWC would be between 55 and 60%.

White has no gammon losses, Blue has about 1 to 2% gammon losses so gammons don't affect the picture very much. The cube will be dead if blue offers and white takes, therefore cube revig is zero. White is 3 away with the the cube currently at 2. If blue cubes, and white drops, white will lead 5a3a with ME=64.8% If white takes and loses, the score will be 3a3a and white's ME will be 50%. White risks 14.8% ME by taking.

IF white takes and wins, his ME=100%

White's takepoint = [ME(drop) - ME(take and lose)]/[ME(take and win) - ME(take and lose)]

White's takepoint is 14.8/50 = 29.6% This is a big take for white.

Calculate blue's market window = gain/(risk + gain)

If blue recubes, and wins, the score will be tied, and his ME=50% If blue recubes, and loses, he loses the match and his ME=0% If blue fails to recube, and wins, the score will be 5a3a, and his ME=35.2% If blue fails to recube, and loses, the score will be 6a1a, and his ME = 11.3%

Blue stands to gain 50 - 35.2 = 14.8% Blue risks 11.3 - 0 = 11.3%

Blue's market window opens at 14.8 /(11.3 + 14.8) which by guess and by gosh I estimate to be about 57%.

No redouble/take! If blue had already hit one, he would be very close to a redouble and white would have a take.

BTW, over the board, my clock ran out while I was doing the math, and I lost the match :D

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