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7a3a recube action

Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Sunday, 22 November 2015, at 2:15 p.m.

In Response To: 7a3a recube action (scotty)

You've made various mistakes here. White's takepoint of 14.8/50 = 29.6% is fine. So if you think blue is only about 55% to 60% favourite to win the game after a hit it is obvious to wait and double white in after a hit, calculating blue's doubling point would be a waste of time. Actually though I think white wins less than 29.6% following any hit and reply.

If blue fails to recube, and loses, the score will be 7a1a, not 6a1a and you also use the reward figure than the risk figure in the numerator of your calculation. So without taking gammon losses into account blue's market window opens at 9.3/(9.3 + 14.8). I'd round this down for a few to gammon losses to around 37%. In my opinion you win well above 40% but this isn't a last roll position and I don't think you should redouble anyway.

The way I look at it is that if you hold you have 20 hits that win immediately with the cube and maybe half a win and one and a half gammon losses out of the 16 misses. If you cube now you have to actually win after a hit and I'd guess four and a half of your NRD wins become losses.

So after no double your match equity/36 should be about 20.5 x 35.2 + 14 x 9.3 = 851.8

After RD/T it should be around 16 x 50 = 800

Clear NRD/T.

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