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THE QUESTION- woodhead Svilo, question repeater :)

Posted By: svilo
Date: Monday, 23 November 2015, at 9:27 a.m.

In Response To: THE QUESTION (neilkaz)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 47
13 point match
pip: 75
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aB-BBCC-B-A----------c-cd-:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:13:3
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout110/7 8/3eq: +0.842
Player:
Opponent:		73.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
26.62% (G:0.91% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.840...+0.844) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7.5 seconds
2.Rollout110/2eq: +0.835 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		76.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
23.02% (G:0.96% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.833...+0.838) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18.0 seconds
3.3-ply8/5 8/3eq: +0.753 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:		71.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
28.53% (G:0.32% B:0.00%)
4.3-ply8/3 5/2eq: +0.695 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:		72.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
27.33% (G:4.72% B:0.06%)
5.3-ply10/5 6/3eq: +0.688 (-0.154)
Player:
Opponent:		70.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
29.12% (G:0.65% B:0.01%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

This is a derivative position from HighSlot151119 with the hole shifted from the 3 to the 2 point, the lonely checker shifted from 11 to 10 point and the roll changed from 62 to 53.

I have a a chance to barein or not.

When the open point is deep (2 or 1), the lose hit is less obvious, because even if he enters he will have only 1 exit. Neil's suggestion 10/7, 8/3 seems unobjectionable at first glance, but the deep-hole consideration comes into play. Although the entry 2s are 2.25 times more than the hitters 52 and 65, the latter are real swingers while only the 52 would swing the game after the barein. Bare-in after 1296 games CUBEFUL rollout wins 77% while the outer-blot-spread wins 3.7% less = 73.4%. His gammons do not change much - only 0.1%. The question is WHY IS 10/7 8/3 on top even if it wins less games in a 1296 games CUBEFUL rollout.

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

The actual position from the real match was





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 47
13 point match
pip: 74
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBB-BCC-B--A---------c-cd-:1:1:1:62:0:0:0:13:3
Blue to play 62

1.XG Roller++11/3eq: +0.709
Player:
Opponent:		70.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
29.53% (G:1.48% B:0.01%)
2.XG Roller++11/9 8/2eq: +0.579 (-0.130)
Player:
Opponent:		65.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
34.62% (G:1.10% B:0.01%)
3.XG Roller++8/2 5/3eq: +0.577 (-0.132)
Player:
Opponent:		65.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
34.25% (G:5.77% B:0.11%)
4.XG Roller++11/5 6/4eq: +0.526 (-0.183)
Player:
Opponent:		63.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
36.83% (G:0.66% B:0.01%)
5.XG Roller++11/5 8/6eq: +0.520 (-0.189)
Player:
Opponent:		62.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
37.42% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)

The higher the open point the more incentive to slot. It is a big blunder not to slot here.
Slotting does not increase gammon risk substantially because I have only 2 men out in addition to the blot and his board is open. If he does not hit, I cash. He has only 4 men off.

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

I did not have a proper double here, but XG dinged me for not slotting.

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