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Variant (Redouble)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 23 November 2015, at 9:18 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout: 7a3a recube action (Timothy Chow)





White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 30
7 point match
pip: 86
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBCCBB-----------aabcAb-:1:1:1:00:0:4:0:7:10

Original Position


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 44.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 45.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 55.74% (G:3.90% B:0.09%) 54.47% (G:14.14% B:1.03%)
Cubeless Equities -0.143 +0.041
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.121�0.001 (+0.120..+0.122)
Redouble/Take:+0.041 (-0.081)�0.005 (+0.035..+0.046)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.879)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 00 second

Above is Tim's rollout of his original position. Blue should not redouble.

Below is a contrasting variant. Blue should redouble.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 31
7 point match
pip: 86
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBCCBB-----------aabcAc-:1:1:1:00:0:4:0:7:10

Variant Position
White has one fewer checker off (on her 1pt)


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 48.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 48.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 51.84% (G:3.79% B:0.08%) 51.18% (G:9.96% B:0.34%)
  Cubeless Equities -0.064 +0.167
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.137 (-0.030)กำ0.001 (+0.136..+0.138)
Redouble/Take:+0.167กำ0.004 (+0.163..+0.171)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.833)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 48.7 seconds

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