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Re: OLM Tues. Jan. 23rd

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Tuesday, 23 January 2007, at 10:19 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Tues. Jan. 23rd (Stick)

I find this a tough one. Our forward position is strong, and it's not clear to me that any move there is an improvement.

13/8 is safe but inflexible. Slotting the bar is nice when it works, but doesn't work too often; an immediate double shot and only one spare to cover. Slotting the nine is worth considering; only a single shot rather than a double, but we'd have to cede the midpoint to cover it. None of these options send me wild with enthusiasm.

So how about moving the back men? Ahead in the race, escaping is thematic, and so is making a move before White develops his own position. I see two viable plays; 23/18 or 24/20 23/22. Either play sits under two stacks of White chequers.

If we come out to the bar, White has 24 shots at us, but 19 are loose hits and we get 16 returns.

If we stay inside, White has 8 PoH numbers, and 16 loose hits with 21 returns or so.

Those numbers are fairly balanced, so what are the other considerations? It is easier to escape from the bar point; direct 5s to the midpoint and more numbers into our own outfield; the rear chequer is safer on the 24 than on the 22, covers White's inner board better. Moving both men is better for making an anchor, but since we're ahead we aren't looking to anchor.

My instinct was to shuffle both up, but my analysis favours 23/18, so that's my play.

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