I use epc methods for these positions. I'll compare it to these reference positions:
The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0
Move number 3: Blue on roll, cube decision?
| White | 48 |
|---|---|
| |
| Blue | 57 |
Position ID: d7cNAADb7g4AAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA | |
White wastes about 13.5 pips, for an epc of 61.5; Blue wastes 9.5 for an epc of 6.5.
White's position is very similar to the reference position; 5s are almost completely wasted. I would estimate White is still at about 61 effective pips.
Blue's spare arrangement must put him somewhere between 9.5 and 13.5 pips of wastage, lets say 11 pips, for an epc of 64, trailing by 3.
If we apply Rule 62 to an efficient position of 61 pips, the actual basic pip count would be about 53.5 pips, giving a takepoint of (53.5 - 5) / 7 = 7 pips, and an initial cube at 4 pips. White wouldn't quite have enough for a cube. However, inefficient races favour the leader. This is a moderately inefficient race, so I would increase White's lead by about 1.5 pips. This gives a total lead of 4.5 pips, so I would say it's a solid Double/Take, with Blue winning 24.5%.