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A common fallacy about luck and skill

Posted By: Havard Raddum
Date: Friday, 26 February 2016, at 12:45 p.m.

In Response To: A common fallacy about luck and skill (Ray Kershaw)

For A to lose, three events must occur simultaneously:

1) A's number must fall in the range [0.99 , 1.00] 2) B's number must fall in the range [0.99 , 1.00] 3) B's number must be greater than A's number

The probability of 1) and 2) are both 1/100, so their combined probability is 1/10000. Given that both 1) and 2) occur, 3) happens with probability 1/2, which means that B wins 1 in 20000.

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