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Excel help: Percentage chances of the person with a better (lower) PR winning based on match length

Posted By: Keene
Date: Thursday, 24 March 2016, at 3:47 p.m.

In Response To: Excel help: Percentage chances of the person with a better (lower) PR winning based on match length (sebalotek)

You are better off getting the ELO MWC table, and doing a conversion on that. AFAIK, the ELO table is in 50 elo increments, and approximately 1 PR=33 elo, so you can most likely just approximate the inbetweens.

As a side note, this information, while useful, is only effective to the extent that you can reasonably estimate the PR difference between 2 players, for any given match, so you will be looking at averages only, and applying them to singular events. When considering this and its usage, I would ask how useful it will be?

This is akin (somewhat) to me saying something like: Player A is a 12 PR, Player B is a 10 PR, for a 3 point match, on average Player B is going to win 56%. BUT since their PR's are so high, both players could play at +/- 5 PR for their respective skill levels, which changes the estimate to be anywhere from 25% for Player B up to 75%, depending on the day.

Accuracy will improve as the PR's tend to 0, but there will always be a volatility at PR>0. This also assumes that PR is perfect.

K

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