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Excel help: Percentage chances of the person with a better (lower) PR winning based on match length

Posted By: Keene
Date: Thursday, 24 March 2016, at 7:32 p.m.

In Response To: Excel help: Percentage chances of the person with a better (lower) PR winning based on match length (Bob Koca)

Agreed. Variance greatly changes as PR increases. Further evidence that such a table is only worthwhile at the (much) lower end of the scale.

Practically speaking, its more valuable for estimating the win rates and expected results for the very best players, not for anyone outside of a 0-4 PR playing strength. Some recent examples of this would be Stick's horror run of results in Texas, but tremendous PR's.

A more personal example is a terrible cube decision I made during a BMAB match (7 whopper) that gave me nearly a 4PR penalty for a 9pt match - which lost me the match. Had I not had that variance in my play, then my PR would have been much better. (I may still have lost the match though). Such is the thing that happens with those of us that dont play at the 1-2 PR level. Variance increases.

K

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