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Excel help: Percentage chances of the person with a better (lower) PR winning based on match length

Posted By: sebalotek
Date: Thursday, 24 March 2016, at 8:29 p.m.

In Response To: Excel help: Percentage chances of the person with a better (lower) PR winning based on match length (Keene)

Thanks for the replies, although it feels like they are mostly referring me to ELO measurement rather than PR measurement which I am explicitly interested in.

Scotty – thanks for the tip – maybe we will get a chance to have a live chat at School of Fish this weekend?

Keene -
:> You are better off getting the ELO MWC table, and doing a conversion on that

Thanks - I wiil try your suggested conversion from ELO to PR with my limited math skills. Of course it will not be as accurate as a dedicated formula (and which might compensate for the lost accuracy / variance as PR ratings increase), which I was hoping somebody could suggest.

>> this information, while useful, is only effective to the extent that you can reasonably estimate the PR difference between 2 players, for any given match

Understood. It’s just that I’ve not seen a very clear and accessible table which maps this relationship using PR as the units (surprising to me since most modern backgammon discussions use PR as the default skill measurement unit, rather than everyone talking in terms of ELO)

Also it’s an interesting academic exercise for me. I am interested to know roughly how little chance I would have against the Giants! For me, it could be also useful as an underdog to get a rough idea of how much more aggressive I should be with the cube with reference to my opponent’s higher skill level (and the inverse if I'm lucky!).

Re: your comments about variation in +/- levels of play, I will only think of it as an approximate guideline (but better than no PR table at all).

Roadkillbooks – thanks for the link. Probably because of my limited knowledge, that diagrams did not seem to overtly reference or display PR, plus they did not seem to be as easy to read as a flat Excel table i.e. axes not labelled.

Thanks again all - still looking for the magic PR formula..

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