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Excel help: Percentage chances of the person with a better (lower) PR winning based on match length

Posted By: eXtreme Gammon
Date: Friday, 25 March 2016, at 3:18 a.m.

In Response To: Excel help: Percentage chances of the person with a better (lower) PR winning based on match length (sebalotek)

Here is the formula

dElo = 33 dPR

Pwin = 1/(1+10^(-SQRT(N).dElo/2000)

where N is the match length.

So dPR = 2 and N=5
=> dElo=66
=> Pwin=54.2375%

This seems valid for PR between 0 and 10 (from GammonSite player result against bots), pass that i am not sure Elo is linear with PR

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