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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 26 January 2007, at 3:55 a.m.

In Response To: Stick v. Weaver - Game #1 - Error #2 (Stick)

I did take my time on this move and came to the wrong conclusion. My flawed thinking was that I was up 8 pips after roll (I did count) and Paul wasn't sure to get that checker by. If I'd had a spare on the 10 pt. I'd have hit instantly but breaking the ten to hit loose didn't appeal to me. I think in the light of day it's more clear that when I hit and he misses the gain is so enormous compared to my idle play. [though still when hit it is costly] He has a much easier time escaping his checker than I do mine.


Match to 11, tied at 0
130
128
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R bar/24 10/5* -0.178
0.2% 16.0% 44.4% 55.6% 16.9% 1.1%
Live cube rollout: -0.183
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.130 ±0.016, - live cube: -0.183 ±0.026. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 26272 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.
* 2 R bar/24 13/8 -0.241 (-0.063)
0.3% 9.5% 42.2% 57.8% 10.7% 0.4%
Live cube rollout: -0.254
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.168 ±0.013, - live cube: -0.254 ±0.028. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 32373 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.

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