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Re: OLM Fri. Jan. 26th

Posted By: stremba
Date: Friday, 26 January 2007, at 1:42 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Fri. Jan. 26th (Stick)

Yes, 11/5 8/6 blots on 66 this turn, but I think we leave fewer blots long term by preparing to clear the 8 point than we do by playing 11/5 6/4. After the "safe" play, we are not going to clear our 8 point next turn. Also, we have 3 spare checkers on the 6 point after 11/5 8/6 vs 1 spare after 11/5 6/4. Each point cleared decreases our blot leaving chances. Our goal here is not to attack, but rather to just roll the position home, so I don't think the better attacking distribution is a factor. Long term safety is the critical factor here. Besides, with Stick's two home board blots, I pay off to the parlay of 66 followed by a hitting number, which only happens 1/36 * 11/36 = 0.85% of the time anyway. Better to take a small risk now while Stick has no board, than to wait and take a risk later when he's more developed. 11/5 8/6 for me.

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