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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 27 January 2007, at 4:28 a.m.

In Response To: Stick v. Weaver -- Weaver on Roll (Stick)

I thought hitting loose on the ace point was a big overplay and I was right. He doesn't need a tempo hit this bad, I don't have that much ammunition ready to pounce. Putting a blot on the ace where even if I fan he doesn't have a cube has to be wrong. [though his sick plan was to make a blunder and follow it up with the joker of the year to win a backgammon, well played]


Match to 11, tied at 0
122
130
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 20/16 6/5 0.031
0.6% 11.7% 52.0% 48.0% 13.1% 0.4%
Live cube rollout: 0.052
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.027 ±0.022, - live cube: 0.052 ±0.034. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 14039 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, seed 1, with race database.
* 2 R 6/1* -0.109 (-0.139)
0.6% 15.2% 48.6% 51.4% 20.7% 0.4%
Live cube rollout: -0.079
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.083 ±0.019, - live cube: -0.079 ±0.034. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 18810 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, seed 1, with race database.

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