Had this position recently against XGR+. White's dead 4 cube gammonless tp ATS is ~28%; the 4 cube GV's are ~25%; Blue's 8 cube tp is 16%. Blue has 28 hitters, 13 of which are real strong: 64,63,54,44,42,33,32,22. I think Blue wins 11 of these 13. The other 15 hitters aren't as good so give Blue 10 wins from this group. The other 8 average 12 pips per leaving you a slight underdog in the race but White might not be able to play safe so call it even and give Blue 4 more wins here. That's 25/36 wins, about 70%. White's true tp after adjusting for g's and cube vig is ~26%, so it's definitely a take.
Blue is about 4% away from White's tp and over half of his 28 hitters rate to lose the market so recubing looks correct. The RO agrees.
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| XGID=---B-BDABa--AB--Acddc-----:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:5:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 69.27% (G:7.41% B:0.09%) | 70.54% (G:6.17% B:0.17%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 30.73% (G:3.26% B:0.06%) | 29.46% (G:2.94% B:0.08%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.440 | +0.983 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.718 (-0.099) | ±0.004 (+0.714..+0.723) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.817 | ±0.009 (+0.809..+0.826) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.183) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 17 minutes 07 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2