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Rollout + short story

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 27 January 2007, at 10:31 p.m.

In Response To: Hickey v. Sticky Round 1 of MANY (Stick)

In the game I doubled and Mary beavered. I have no problem admitting the double was early and there was no thought in my mind that Mary would ever pass this. So the question is, if Mary beavered is my double now correct? The simplest formula I've got so far is that "if double the take equity is greater than the no double equity then it was a proper double [thanks to the beaver]". So in this case if .364x2 >> .506 my double was correct. It obviously is so good double!? [btw, if I ever fuck up the math just let me know ... I'm no Gauss]

Money Game
Blue (Stick) on roll. Cube Action?
187
136
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
Rollout Money equity: 0.342
1.6% 24.6% 59.1% 40.9% 9.7% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.342 ±0.024, - live cube no double: 0.506 ±0.044, - live cube double take: 0.364 ±0.059. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 13259 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
Evaluations
1. No double 0.470
2. Double, take 0.385 (-0.084)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.530)
Proper cube action: No double, take14%
Live cube
1. No double 0.506
2. Double, take 0.364 (-0.142)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.494)
Proper cube action: No double, take22%

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