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To Bagai or not to Bagai

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Wednesday, 22 March 2017, at 4:58 p.m.

In Response To: To Bagai or not to Bagai (Stick)

After 4/2 4/0, I'd guess we got about 40% gammons, since it's about 5-roll vs 5-roll with him going first.

After Bagai I'd guess about the same when he enters on 6, but like 65% when he dances (about 5-roll vs 5-roll with us starting). That's 16/36 (dances) times +25% gammons, so about +11% gammons.

What about the 11 hits? We'd have to loose 11%/(11/36), so about 36% "gammons" in these cases. I guess we loose about 5% wins, so it's like 10% gammons. Do we loose another 26% more in gammons? I feel more like loosing about half of the original gammons (40%), not more, since any of our hit is still strong with 4pt board, so 20%, which is less than 26% needed to push Bagai behind.

Bagai for me.

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