Even if you lift the opp's inner board blot it's still barely correct to make the ace point. It's also dependent upon how likely the opp. is to run off the gammon so if we push his outfield checker back there will be a borderline point. See variant.
        
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 74 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 31
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aBCBB-a---------a---abed-:1:-1:1:42:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 5/1* 3/1 | eq: +1.394 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 97.60% (G:44.47% B:0.41%)
2.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.392...+1.396) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5.6 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 4/2 4/Off | eq: +1.370 (-0.023) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 98.56% (G:39.24% B:1.12%)
1.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.369...+1.372) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4.8 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36714088
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Variant
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 79 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 31
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aBCBB-a----a--------abed-:1:-1:1:42:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 4/2 4/Off | eq: +1.504 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 98.91% (G:51.03% B:1.85%)
1.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.502...+1.505) - [91.6%]
Duration: 5.1 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 5/1* 3/1 | eq: +1.502 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 98.02% (G:54.27% B:0.48%)
1.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.500...+1.504) - [8.4%]
Duration: 5.9 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36714088
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10