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Rollout

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Sunday, 28 January 2007, at 5:32 a.m.

In Response To: Did I blow it ? (neilkaz)

I had some really strong players telling me and I quickly became convinced that I blew it by not cubing here. Mike had taken a long time with his previous 65 (he ran from 23-12) and I had figured that at this score I just didn't quite have enough and I certainly didn't expect a pass.

GNU's rollout says that I can stop kicking myself for not cubing. I rolled my own 65 and had an easy cash after his 42 safing up his blot.

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 13, user 14 (match to 17 points)

Move number 6: user on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: gnubg 147, user 109
Position ID: zJ4hARPMO2cABA Match ID: cAkgAtAAcAAA

• user doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.1221)!

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5997	(Money: +0.5267)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.6720
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.3280
3.	Double, take	+0.5499	-0.1221
Proper cube action:		No double, take (27.1%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6762 0.2234 0.0116 - 0.3238 0.0574 0.0033 +0.5997 +0.6720 Standard error 0.0013 0.0026 0.0017 - 0.0013 0.0017 0.0008 0.0045 0.0079 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.6680 0.2777 0.0335 - 0.3320 0.0739 0.0062 +1.3346 +0.5499 Standard error 0.0015 0.0050 0.0033 - 0.0015 0.0037 0.0013 0.0111 0.0150
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1663 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1016104303 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]