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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 28 January 2007, at 5:15 p.m.

In Response To: Stick/Weaver Double Aces (Stick)

At the time I knew it was an overplay with the last ace slotting the bar. My position is solid enough that I'll make points naturally and with the split I force Paul to safety his blots or attack me deep in his home board. He won't have time to split his back men for a few turns and I should be able to hem him in. If I knew it was wrong why did I play it? I felt it was a small overplay, not almost a blunder as it turns out. Going into this match I was willing to make what I thought were small overplays to try to grab the initiative since I figured Paul was a better match player than myself.


Match to 11, White leads 3 to 0
155
162
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R bar/23 6/5(2) 0.186
1.0% 16.1% 55.1% 44.9% 16.4% 0.5%
Live cube rollout: 0.209
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.105 ±0.014, - live cube: 0.209 ±0.027. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 37729 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.
* 2 R bar/24 8/7 6/5(2) 0.112 (-0.074)
1.0% 16.3% 53.0% 47.0% 16.9% 1.3%
Live cube rollout: 0.127
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.050 ±0.014, - live cube: 0.127 ±0.030. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 33306 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.

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