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Rollout result posted, and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 5 August 2017, at 6:54 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout result posted (Paul Weaver)





White is Nevzat

score: 11
pip: 122
17 point match
pip: 110
score: 12

Blue is Petko
XGID=--CBaBC-A---bB---dBdca----:0:0:1:00:12:11:0:17:10

Original position


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.21% (G:22.90% B:0.30%) 64.44% (G:23.20% B:0.37%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.79% (G:8.59% B:0.41%) 35.56% (G:8.78% B:0.56%)
Cubeless Equities +0.410 +0.874
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.497 (-0.069)±0.005 (+0.492..+0.502)
Double/Take:+0.566±0.007 (+0.559..+0.573)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.434)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 25 minutes 31 seconds


Paul's rollout result of the Petko-Nevzat position appears above. Double / Take.

Two variants appear below. The first is No double, the second is Pass.

Nack




White is Player 2

score: 11
pip: 122
17 point match
pip: 112
score: 12

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--CBaBB-B---bB---dBdca----:0:0:1:00:12:11:0:17:10

Variant 1 (Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted 6/8)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.72% (G:18.61% B:0.26%) 61.94% (G:19.07% B:0.37%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.28% (G:8.99% B:0.39%) 38.06% (G:9.03% B:0.57%)
Cubeless Equities +0.315 +0.665
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.395±0.009 (+0.386..+0.404)
Double/Take:+0.335 (-0.060)±0.021 (+0.314..+0.356)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.605)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 70354995
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 17 seconds







White is Player 2

score: 11
pip: 122
17 point match
pip: 113
score: 12

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBaCC-A---bB---dBdca----:0:0:1:00:12:11:0:17:10

Variant 2 (Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted 2/5)


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.08% (G:28.93% B:0.33%) 70.33% (G:29.13% B:0.41%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.92% (G:7.21% B:0.34%) 29.67% (G:7.68% B:0.51%)
Cubeless Equities +0.601 +1.286
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.685 (-0.315)±0.004 (+0.681..+0.689)
Double/Take:+1.026 (+0.026)±0.007 (+1.019..+1.033)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 70354995
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 22 minutes 43 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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