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Your Thoughts Please

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Thursday, 17 August 2017, at 1:44 a.m.

In Response To: Your Thoughts Please (ah_clem)

There are tons of examples with optimal or near optimal play. Here are some conditions that are likely to give them.

i) When you are losing by a little bit a play that gives huge volatility has a large cube efficiency factor for you.

ii) Plays that often give a near perfect efficient cube for you have a large cube efficiency.

iii) Big plays that give a huge overage when they work have bad cube eficiency. The ones already shown in this thread are of that type. I doubt it is difficult to find similar examples without a cube error immediately preceding.

Here is a type 2 example. Hitting is worse by .09 cubeless but cubeful is better by .04. Note that the 20 dances give a super efficient cube where DT is 1.02





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 61
Unlimited Game
pip: 63
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CCDaC-----A----A---bbddb-:0:0:1:16:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 16

1.Rollout111/4* eq: +0.167
Player:
Opponent:
52.27% (G:0.32% B:0.00%)
47.73% (G:4.24% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.163...+0.171) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12.4 seconds
2.Rollout116/10 11/10eq: +0.128 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
54.99% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
45.01% (G:0.20% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.120...+0.136) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8.0 seconds
3.Rollout116/10 5/4* eq: +0.096 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
50.43% (G:0.42% B:0.01%)
49.57% (G:8.21% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.092...+0.099) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14.2 seconds
4.Rollout116/15 11/5eq: +0.056 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:
51.98% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
48.02% (G:0.18% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.049...+0.063) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7.9 seconds
5.Rollout111/5 3/2eq: +0.042 (-0.126)
Player:
Opponent:
50.79% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
49.21% (G:0.23% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.035...+0.048) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10.5 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Here is a position of the first type. Cubeful the slot is about .05 better but cubeless it is .05 worse.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 127
Unlimited Game
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--BBC-A-A-cD-----bbbbbB-:0:0:1:56:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 56

1.Rollout113/8 13/7eq: -0.352
Player:
Opponent:
42.66% (G:10.04% B:0.52%)
57.34% (G:27.34% B:3.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.026 (-0.378...-0.327) - [99.9%]
Duration: 3 minutes 07 seconds
2.Rollout113/8 10/4eq: -0.405 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
40.45% (G:11.65% B:0.45%)
59.55% (G:21.19% B:1.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.424...-0.387) - [0.1%]
Duration: 3 minutes 13 seconds
3.2-ply24/13eq: -0.687 (-0.335)
Player:
Opponent:
39.00% (G:8.80% B:0.45%)
61.00% (G:34.19% B:1.18%)
4.1-ply13/7 10/5eq: -0.715 (-0.362)
Player:
Opponent:
37.07% (G:9.53% B:0.44%)
62.93% (G:29.27% B:3.64%)
5.1-ply10/4 8/3eq: -0.718 (-0.366)
Player:
Opponent:
36.11% (G:9.13% B:0.41%)
63.89% (G:27.66% B:2.76%)
1 793 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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