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Am I too good

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Monday, 18 September 2017, at 9:21 p.m.

In Response To: Am I too good (Michael)

While I don't disagree with the essence of Michael's analysis, simply coming up with 16/6% bad rolls is only a part of the story. In the position below, you have exactly the same number of bad rolls but it is too good because the upside, mostly the increased number of gammons, weighed against the number of "market gainers" is so much greater.

So again, we can't have a set formula that says X number of bad rolls makes it a double, as it depends on how bad the bad rolls are and how many gammons are available on the upside.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 141
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 90
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=bBBBBBBA----c----bAbbbbA--:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+ No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 83.50% (G:72.45% B:0.49%) 83.50% (G:72.40% B:0.49%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 16.50% (G:1.66% B:0.07%) 16.50% (G:1.64% B:0.07%)
Cubeless Equities +1.382 +2.764
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+1.461
Redouble/Take:+2.657 (+1.195)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.461)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 27.8%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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