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FOUR SCORE position with Favorite 54

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 5 October 2017, at 7:19 p.m.

In Response To: Favorite 54 (Nack Ballard)

Thanks to Igor and ah_clem for their instructive comments.

The position here illustrates three plays that are in a dead heat for money. Keeping Blue's position the same, I adjusted White's position (by 6/2(2), 5/10, 8/10(2), as you will soon see) and to my surprise emerged with a four-score position.

Below is a nacbrac summary of the rollouts (one line for each score).

.........m[2 D24 328 R64] "<=5
..........d[R D14 214 329] <5
..........s[D R16 221 355] "<5
..........g[3 221 D47 R133] "<5

Key:..R (Run) = 18/14 18/13, D (Down) = 13/9 13/8, "2" (2pt) = 7/2 6/2, "3" (3pt) = 8/3.
Nactation tutorial ....nacbracs explanation

Each of the four main scores has a different best play. In fact, this is not only a T4 (technical four-score position). It is also an "R4" (real four-score position), meaning that for each of money, DMP, gammon save and gammon go, the best play clears its respective .010, .0045, .007 and .007 "tied" margin (compared to any play that is best at some other score).

The power rating for this R4 is [sqrt 24 + sqrt 14*20/9 + sqrt 16*10/7 + sqrt 21*10/7] = 19.98. To compare to the power ratings of other R4's, click here (scroll to the bottom). Also not yet included in that consolidation are R4's with rolls of 41, 43, 64, 44, 65 and 21.

Detailed rollout results follow.

Money





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 144
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----EDB---cB-c--Bb-bab--:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10

32S-32H-61$-32N-66B-64R-51B-41H-
-41H-31H-65R-64R-527-66o.54


1.Rollout17/2 6/2eq: +0.516
Player:
Opponent:
62.31% (G:18.45% B:0.68%)
37.69% (G:9.58% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.510...+0.522) - [100.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout113/9 13/8eq: +0.492 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
62.29% (G:15.82% B:0.58%)
37.71% (G:8.38% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.485...+0.499) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 22 seconds
3.Rollout18/3 7/3eq: +0.488 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
61.65% (G:19.84% B:0.90%)
38.35% (G:10.65% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.481...+0.495) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 33 seconds
4.Rollout118/14 18/13eq: +0.452 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
62.90% (G:10.58% B:0.53%)
37.10% (G:9.30% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.445...+0.459) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37887372
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

DMP





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 144
1 point match
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----EDB---cB-c--Bb-bab--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 54

1.Rollout118/14 18/13eq: +0.253
Player:
Opponent:
62.66% (G:12.84% B:1.19%)
37.34% (G:8.64% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.251...+0.256) - [100.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 36 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 13/8eq: +0.240 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
61.98% (G:17.00% B:1.35%)
38.02% (G:8.05% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.237...+0.242) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 56 seconds
3.Rollout17/2 6/2eq: +0.239 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
61.97% (G:20.60% B:1.62%)
38.03% (G:8.84% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.237...+0.242) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 19 seconds
4.Rollout18/3 7/3eq: +0.224 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
61.21% (G:21.63% B:2.11%)
38.79% (G:10.31% B:0.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.222...+0.227) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 19 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 17459709
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Gammon Save





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 144
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 136
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----EDB---cB-c--Bb-bab--:0:0:1:54:1:0:1:2:10
Blue to play 54

1.Rollout113/9 13/8eq: +0.072
Player:
Opponent:
62.76% (G:18.31% B:1.52%)
37.24% (G:9.17% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.068...+0.075) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 07 seconds
2.Rollout118/14 18/13eq: +0.056 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
62.97% (G:14.14% B:1.75%)
37.03% (G:10.17% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.053...+0.060) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 27 seconds
3.Rollout17/2 6/2eq: +0.051 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
61.92% (G:20.02% B:1.52%)
38.08% (G:9.36% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.048...+0.055) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 21 seconds
4.Rollout18/3 7/3eq: +0.017 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
61.30% (G:20.90% B:1.81%)
38.70% (G:10.45% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.014...+0.020) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 44 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36091569
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Gammon Go





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 144
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----EDB---cB-c--Bb-bab--:0:0:1:54:0:1:1:2:10
Blue to play 54

1.Rollout18/3 7/3eq: +0.604
Player:
Opponent:
63.37% (G:16.81% B:2.12%)
36.63% (G:10.52% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.600...+0.607) - [100.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 57 seconds
2.Rollout17/2 6/2eq: +0.583 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
63.92% (G:15.21% B:1.97%)
36.08% (G:9.26% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.579...+0.586) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 11 seconds
3.Rollout113/9 13/8eq: +0.556 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
62.84% (G:14.98% B:1.53%)
37.16% (G:8.96% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.553...+0.560) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 04 seconds
4.Rollout118/14 18/13eq: +0.470 (-0.133)
Player:
Opponent:
62.61% (G:10.90% B:1.07%)
37.39% (G:9.47% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.467...+0.473) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 36 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36091569
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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